Bull Run Mountain Estates: Demographics & People
Bull Run Mountain Estates is home to 1,827 people, in 505 households. Population grew 15.5% from 1,582 (2022) to 1,827 (2024). Median age 34.6 years. (1.7y younger than Prince William County; 3.2y younger than Virginia). Children under 18 are 41% of the population. Population is 72% White (non-Hispanic) and 13% Hispanic or Latino. The community is somewhat diverse (Simpson index 0.31). 89% of households are family-led. County is losing 8,300 residents per year (2022-2023). County health: 33% adult obesity, 12% smoke.
- 3.6 people per household (vs Virginia avg 2.6).
- 11% non-family households (singles, roommates) (vs Virginia 35%).
- 106 dependents per 100 working-age (youth + seniors / 18-64) (vs Virginia 62).
Population & Trend
Population grew 15.5% from 1,582 (2022) to 1,827 (2024) — about 25.8× the recent U.S. annual rate of ~0.6%/yr. Estimated 2026 population: ~2,120 (extrapolated at 7.7%/yr trend). Census Bureau Vintage estimate: 2,556.
| Census data vintage | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Population | 482,204 people |
| Annual growth rate · Population change | 15.5% |
| Annual growth rate · Population (2022) | 1,582 |
| Annual growth rate · Population (2024) | 1,827 |
| Annual growth rate · Population growing | Yes |
| Annual growth rate · Trend category | booming |
| Population | 1,827 people (vs Virginia 42,214) |
| Population Estimate | 2,556 |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023, Table B01003 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Age Distribution
Median age 34.6y is 4.3 years younger than the U.S. median (38.9y). Children under 18 make up 41% — above the U.S. share of ~22%.
| Age Summary · Median age | 34.6 years (vs Virginia 37.8y) |
|---|---|
| Age Summary · Children Pct | 40.7% |
| Age Summary · Character | young professional |
| Age Summary · Total Pop | 1,827 |
| Age Summary · Under 18 | 744 |
| Age Summary · 18 To 34 | 177.0× |
| Age Summary · 35 To 64 | 712.0× |
| Age Summary · 65 Plus | 194 |
| Population under 18 | 744 |
| Median age | 34.6 years (vs Virginia 37.8y) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2024 — place-level B01001 query · Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-29
Race, Ethnicity & Diversity
Of 1,827 residents, race / ethnicity breaks down by Census ACS counts (a person can identify with one or more groups). The Simpson diversity index is 0.31 (0 = single group, 1 = perfectly even distribution); this is read as somewhat diverse.
| White residents | 1,237 |
|---|---|
| Black residents | 192 |
| Hispanic or Latino residents | 87 |
| Diversity Index · Diversity index (Simpson) | 31.5% |
| Diversity Index · Diversity label | somewhat diverse |
| Diversity Index · Groups counted | 3 |
| Diversity Index · Largest group share | 81.6% |
| Black population | 10.6% (vs Virginia 18.2%) |
| Hispanic or Latino population | 12.9% (vs Virginia 10.1%) |
| White (non-Hispanic) population | 71.6% (vs Virginia 53.8%) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Ancestry
Self-reported ancestry from Census ACS — what residents report as their ethnic origin, separate from race. Counts can exceed population because people can list multiple ancestries.
Top (8)
Citizenship & Origin
Where residents were born and their citizenship status (Census ACS). 2.9% are foreign-born — below the U.S. average of 13.9%. 2% have naturalized to U.S. citizenship.
| Residents born in this state | 867 |
|---|---|
| Residents born in another state | 880 |
| Share born in this state | 47.5% |
| Share born in another state | 52.5% |
| Native-born U.S. citizens | 48.2% |
| Foreign-born residents | 2.9% |
| Naturalized citizens | 1.5% |
| Total foreign-born residents | 39 |
| From Europe | 27 |
Households & Family Composition
505 households. Averaging 3.7 people each — larger than the U.S. average of 2.5. 89% are family households — above the U.S. share of ~65%. Of 340 families, 75% are married couples with children.
| Children under 18 | 740 |
|---|---|
| Total families | 340 |
| Married couples with children | 255 |
| Average household size | 3.70 |
| Women who gave birth (past year) | 5.0% |
| Grandparents living with grandchildren | 8,337 |
| Grandparents responsible for grandchildren | 3,891 |
| Family households | 448 households (vs Virginia 9,367) |
| Households that are families | 88.7% (vs Virginia 65.0%) |
| Total households | 505 households (vs Virginia 14,324) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Residential Stability & Migration
How long residents have lived here and where they came from. 5.0% moved within the county in the past year — the U.S. baseline is roughly 8–10%. The surrounding county is losing 8,300 residents per year on net (IRS migration data).
| Moved within the county (past year) | 5.0% |
|---|---|
| Migration · People moving in (annual) | 493,472 |
| Migration · People moving out (annual) | 501,772 |
| Migration · Net migration (in − out) | -8,300 |
| Migration · Year | 2022-2023 |
Sources: IRS SOI Migration 2021-2022 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Disability
Census ACS measures self-reported functional limitations — vision, hearing, mobility, cognitive, self-care, or independent-living. The U.S. baseline disability rate is about 12–13%; rates trend higher with median age.
| Residents with a disability | 73 |
|---|---|
| Disability rate | 4.8% |
Other
| Congressional District · District | 10 |
|---|---|
| Congressional District · Formatted | VA-10 |
| Congressional District · Congress | 118th |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Fips | 51153 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · State Fips | 51 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · County Fips | 153 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · County | Prince William |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Birth Rate | 12.8% |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Lower Ci | 11.90 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Upper Ci | 13.70 |
| Cdc Mortality · Fips | 51153 |
| Cdc Mortality · County | Prince William County |
| Cdc Mortality · Urban Rural | Large fringe metro |
| Cdc Mortality · Total Deaths 2020 2023 | 6,770 |
| Cdc Vaccination · Fips | 51153 |
| Cdc Vaccination · County | Prince William County |
| Cdc Vaccination · Dose1 Pop Pct | 91.8% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Series Complete Pct | 76.3% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Booster Pct | 46.6% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Population 2019 | 470,335 |
| Cdc Vaccination · Metro Status | Metro |
| Family Score · Score | 10 |
| Family Score · Schools | 20 |
| Family Score · Children Pct | 40.7% |
| Family Score · Rating | excellent |
| Town Summary · Key Facts | population 1,827, booming, young professional, affluent, white collar |
| Town Summary · Population | 1,827 people (vs Virginia 42,214) |
| Town Summary · County | Prince William County |
Sources: Census place-to-CD118 crosswalk (place_fips) · federal dataset cascade