Lake Caroline: Demographics & People
About 2,862 people live in Lake Caroline, in 1,136 households. Population grew 5.7% from 2,708 (2022) to 2,862 (2024). Median age 32.0 years. (6.9y younger than Caroline County; 5.8y younger than Virginia). Children under 18 are 29% of the population. Population is 52% White (non-Hispanic) and 28% Hispanic or Latino. The community is moderately diverse (Simpson index 0.57). 57% of households are family-led. County is gaining 1,851 residents per year (2022-2023). County health: 42% adult obesity, 16% smoke.
- 2.5 people per household (vs Virginia avg 2.6).
- 43% non-family households (singles, roommates) (vs Virginia 35%).
- 70 dependents per 100 working-age (youth + seniors / 18-64) (vs Virginia 62).
Population & Trend
Population grew 5.7% from 2,708 (2022) to 2,862 (2024) — about 9.5× the recent U.S. annual rate of ~0.6%/yr. Estimated 2026 population: ~3,027 (extrapolated at 2.8%/yr trend). Census Bureau Vintage estimate: 3,256.
| Census data vintage | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Population | 30,887 people |
| Annual growth rate · Population change | 5.7% |
| Annual growth rate · Population (2022) | 2,708 |
| Annual growth rate · Population (2024) | 2,862 |
| Annual growth rate · Population growing | Yes |
| Annual growth rate · Trend category | booming |
| Population | 2,862 people (vs Virginia 42,214) |
| Population Estimate | 3,256 |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023, Table B01003 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Age Distribution
Median age 32.0y is 6.9 years younger than the U.S. median (38.9y). Children under 18 make up 29% — above the U.S. share of ~22%.
| Age Summary · Median age | 32.0 years (vs Virginia 37.8y) |
|---|---|
| Age Summary · Children Pct | 28.8% |
| Age Summary · Character | young professional |
| Age Summary · Total Pop | 2,862 |
| Age Summary · Under 18 | 825 |
| Age Summary · 18 To 34 | 891.0× |
| Age Summary · 35 To 64 | 790.0× |
| Age Summary · 65 Plus | 356 |
| Population under 18 | 825 |
| Median age | 32.0 years (vs Virginia 37.8y) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2024 — place-level B01001 query · Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-29
Race, Ethnicity & Diversity
Of 2,862 residents, race / ethnicity breaks down by Census ACS counts (a person can identify with one or more groups). The Simpson diversity index is 0.57 (0 = single group, 1 = perfectly even distribution); this is read as moderately diverse.
| White residents | 1,620 |
|---|---|
| Black residents | 657 |
| Hispanic or Latino residents | 474 |
| Diversity Index · Diversity index (Simpson) | 56.6% |
| Diversity Index · Diversity label | moderately diverse |
| Diversity Index · Groups counted | 3 |
| Diversity Index · Largest group share | 58.9% |
| Black population | 15.5% (vs Virginia 18.2%) |
| Hispanic or Latino population | 28.2% (vs Virginia 10.1%) |
| White (non-Hispanic) population | 51.6% (vs Virginia 53.8%) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Ancestry
Self-reported ancestry from Census ACS — what residents report as their ethnic origin, separate from race. Counts can exceed population because people can list multiple ancestries.
Top (6)
Citizenship & Origin
Where residents were born and their citizenship status (Census ACS).
| Residents born in this state | 1,355 |
|---|---|
| Residents born in another state | 932 |
| Share born in this state | 47.3% |
| Share born in another state | 52.7% |
| Native-born U.S. citizens | 32.6% |
| Naturalized citizens | 20.1% |
| Total foreign-born residents | 182 |
| From Europe | 42 |
Households & Family Composition
1,136 households. Averaging 2.7 people each — larger than the U.S. average of 2.5. 57% are family households — below the U.S. share of ~65%. Of 699 families, 36% are married couples with children.
| Children under 18 | 827 |
|---|---|
| Total families | 699 |
| Married couples with children | 251 |
| Average household size | 2.67 |
| Women who gave birth (past year) | 10.5% |
| Grandparents living with grandchildren | 615 |
| Grandparents responsible for grandchildren | 385 |
| Family households | 652 households (vs Virginia 9,367) |
| Households that are families | 57.4% (vs Virginia 65.0%) |
| Total households | 1,136 households (vs Virginia 14,324) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Residential Stability & Migration
How long residents have lived here and where they came from. 28.3% moved within the county in the past year — the U.S. baseline is roughly 8–10%. The surrounding county is gaining 1,851 residents per year on net (IRS migration data).
| Moved within the county (past year) | 28.3% |
|---|---|
| Migration · People moving in (annual) | 32,090 |
| Migration · People moving out (annual) | 30,239 |
| Migration · Net migration (in − out) | 1,851 |
| Migration · Population growing | Yes |
| Migration · Year | 2022-2023 |
Sources: IRS SOI Migration 2021-2022 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Disability
Census ACS measures self-reported functional limitations — vision, hearing, mobility, cognitive, self-care, or independent-living. The U.S. baseline disability rate is about 12–13%; rates trend higher with median age.
| Residents with a disability | 87 |
|---|---|
| Disability rate | 3.3% |
Other
| Congressional District · District | 7 |
|---|---|
| Congressional District · Formatted | VA-07 |
| Congressional District · Congress | 118th |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Fips | 51033 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · State Fips | 51 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · County Fips | 033 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · County | Caroline |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Birth Rate | 20.0% |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Lower Ci | 16.00 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Upper Ci | 24.80 |
| Cdc Mortality · Fips | 51033 |
| Cdc Mortality · County | Caroline County |
| Cdc Mortality · Urban Rural | Large fringe metro |
| Cdc Mortality · Total Deaths 2020 2023 | 729 |
| Cdc Vaccination · Fips | 51033 |
| Cdc Vaccination · County | Caroline County |
| Cdc Vaccination · Dose1 Pop Pct | 50.7% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Series Complete Pct | 43.5% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Booster Pct | 16.6% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Population 2019 | 30,725 |
| Cdc Vaccination · Metro Status | Metro |
| Town Summary · Key Facts | population 2,862, booming, young professional, middle-class, mixed |
| Town Summary · Population | 2,862 people (vs Virginia 42,214) |
| Town Summary · County | Caroline County |
Sources: Census place-to-CD118 crosswalk (place_fips) · federal dataset cascade